Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (Punkadyne Labs (Punkwalrus))

One of the lessons I remember from elementary school was a story about some guy who was a scam artist. It was in a film about how you can make statistics lie. I don't recall who put it out, but it was in some 1970s hygiene film format geared for my age group at the time.

The story was about this detective who wanted to expose someone he thought was scamming potential business owners. He'd loan money to music stores, and make them into a sort of franchise for his company name. Then the business would do poorly, and the owners would need bailed out. "Being kind hearted," he'd buy them out at half their investment, when by all rights, he could legally toss them out on the street with nothing. And this would repeat with someone else.

One set of former owners said that the scammer would supply them with lists of what music people liked. They would poll several thousand people from all over town, and ask them what kind of music they liked and bought. You could even verify the names they provided on the sample. So, based on this untapped market, these franchises would stock a lot of cello music. And very few people bought it. And so they'd be forced to go out of business. Now, most of you may be thinking you know where this is going: the list was rigged, and the sample pollers were plants. They weren't. In fact, they did sample several thousand random people from all over town. And 98% of them said they liked cello music. "Not enough places have a wide selection of cello music."

So, as you can imagine, that's quite a stretch that 98% of the population like cello music. So how did they get those perfectly legitimate figures?

They asked people leaving cello performances at the local music hall.

This lesson is the key to statistics. They can be easily manipulated. They are lies that someone will claim is fact because it involves math. "Aha," you say, my little nerdobites, "what about in a lab? Where they have controls and shit?" No, you have missed the point. Let's take a pretend controlled experiment.

You have three sets of mice exposed to the exact same environment, except one set listens to rock music all the time, the second set listens to classical music all the time, and the third listens to no music. After two weeks, you observe that the behavior of the classical music mice are more relaxed and stress free than no music, and the rock music mice are freaking out and one of them even dies. That's the end of your math right there. This is as far as you can go with this experiment and still stay objective.

But most people would extrapolate that rock music is unhealthy. One of the mice died! And classical music made them all calm. Which would you choose to play for elevator music?

STOP RIGHT THERE!

How many thought, even though they may have chosen the opposite just to defy me, "classical music?" Eh? For a second, you probably thought, "classical," and a few of you may have immediately stopped thinking and said, "I bet I am about to be tricked. That Punkie, always setting me up!" (Hopefully you did not say this aloud at work).

Now why would most people choose classical music? Think hard for 1 minute.

BZZZT! I tricked you. Look at that last sentence. "Now why would most people choose classical music?" Hmmm... see it? "Now why would most people choose classical music?" See the subtle trick? I put the suggestion right in the sentence. I suggested, totally pulling out of my ass, "most people." Did I say most people choose anywhere? Did I link to some survey? Show a scientific fact? Even have a lousy footnote or bibliography? No. And that's how I just influenced most of you.

I am chuckling at a few of you who are still arguing in your head about rock mice versus classical mice. Right before the experiment, I said "Let's take a pretend controlled experiment." It never happened. And look how I took that pretend mouse experiment and applied it to humans in elevators. In fact, that whole thing? Completely made up. Now, maybe someone did have that experiment, it sounds like a thing they'd have on Mythbusters. But while this seems like a pure experiment if someone did this, think again.

- What rock music? What classical? There are many types.
- How do we know it was the music, and not say, the frequency of the notes?
- How do we know what volume they played at?
- Why didn't we add bagpipe music? Or country? Or Yodeling?
- Why did we choose mice?
- Why did we do it just once? Why two weeks?

And so on. There's an old joke about experiments and preconceived notions.

A scientist trains a frog to jump at a command. "JUMP!" he screams, and the frog jumps. One day, he cuts off a leg. "JUMP!" he screams, and the frog jumps, but not as far. The next day, he cuts off another leg. "JUMP!" he screams, and the frog kind of does a hop-crawl. The next day, he cuts off the remaining two legs. "JUMP!" he screams, and the frog does not move. "My conclusion of this experiment," he writes in his journal, "is that when you cut off all the legs, the frog goes deaf."

So why this post? Because the media is using them extensively for the upcoming election. Penn and Teller did a bit on it that further explains my point.

Posted in: lies , penn and teller , polls , statistics

Last entry for the weekend (Punkadyne Labs (Punkwalrus))

I read this gripping story. It's about a person who fakes entire personalities over the Internet, sucking people into her web. And it has Harlan Ellison in it! Bonus!

http://www.laweekly.com/news/news/the-life-and-death-of-jesse-james/17427/

There's a harrowing passage from this article that reminds me of fights I have had, and the wisdom I eventually gained.

She starts packing. Will — Tania’s boyfriend — is quivering with rage. He’s young, and doesn’t understand yet how random, insane and chaotic the universe is. He still lives in a world where answers will be provided if you demand them.

“What the fuck is wrong with you, bitch?” he yells. “What the fuck were you thinking?”

She looks up at him with her cow eyes and shakes her head.

“I don’t have to explain myself to you.”

I pat him on the shoulder. He’s never going to get the answers he wants.

How sadly true this is. Posted in: fakery , impersonation , lies

Liar, liar, pants on fire (Punkadyne Labs (Punkwalrus))

As some of you who have been with me a long time know, once in a while, I get these letters. I suspect they are from the same person nowadays, since there was that one guy, Colorado Ted, who just wouldn't let the whole Crunchland thing go. But this may not have been from him, mostly because he spelled my name right and it doesn't sound like he's drunk (Ted used to go through waves where he'd get hammered, and then drunk-mail me). I never know what to say to these letters. The mail comes from my most prominent former public address, so I am not sure where he got it, but the return address is (Bob Liar) youarefibbing@freemail.com.ru, which I thought was one of those "anonymous office mails" (like where people send office mates "you wear too much cologne" or "you are a suckky boss"). But looking on the site, I am guessing that it's an account this person set up. Since they are too cowardly to confront me in person, I shall have to reply publicly. This is the short letter, in its entirety, broken up. I tried to get clarification and a reply; the e-mail address did not bounce. But I got no response over the weekend.

Punkie. or should I call your Mr. Walrus? which are you? neither, right?

I confess. I am neither a tsetse fly from Africa, nor a large pinniped with tusks. "Punk Walrus" comes from a character in my first book, which I have used as an online handle since the BBS days. Or maybe you meant I am not a "Mr." anything, but actually female. I am not that, either. I got the twigs and berries to prove it, too, and no, I am not posting them on the Internet. I am not sure why the preface started out this way, maybe he thought that I was really claiming to be any of those.

you're the biggest pathological liar everyone believes on the Internet I've ever seen

I think, if I was a liar, I would be proud at this statement. The biggest he's ever met! "Why, thank you! How many have you met, though?" But I suspect that this person meant it as an insult, and since I am not a pathological liar, I am confused as to how I should properly react or how he would suspect a pathological liar to react. This is an argument that is not designed to be winnable. If I say, "Yes, I am a pathological liar," I would nullify that statement but agreeing I don't tell the truth, as Spock's phrase "I always tell lies" destroyed the androids on the Star Trek episode, "MUDD's Women." If I say "No, I am not," he already thinks I am, so of course, I'd be lying. This is the kind of argument that is devoid of any debate whatsoever, because the hypothesis is flawed, and thus, the insult is invalidated.

It probably was not thought out very much, but posted in a moment of rage.

But look at the telling psychological crack, "everyone believes." This tells me that what I say sounds true enough for others to believe, but he's wise to that! I don't fool him, no sir! He's in control now, and I better watch out. So who does he speak for, himself? Does he speak on behalf of a concerned group? Probably not, unless "concerned group" would be him and his Warcraft Guild buddies, card gaming group, or something.

"Yeah, you tell him, Ted!"

But he gets to the core of his letter quickly. I will assume for this letter, all caps means he's shouting.

STOP FUCKING LYING YOU FUCKING LYING SACK OF SHIT

STOP. YOUR. BULLSHIT. LIES.

So, we get to the heart of the issue. He is telling me what to do. Look at those harsh words. Wow, "lying sack of shit." Damn. I guess I am supposed to be hurt, impacted, maybe he hopes I am devastated. "NO! MY LIES! Okay... you win. I'll just stop posting... [sniff]." I mean, he doesn't state anywhere in the letter what lies I am telling. Just a general "pathological liar." At least he has enough knowledge to define what kind of liar he thinks I am. I am supposedly a "mythomaniac," according to the clinical definition. So is this letter supposed to correct my behavior in any way? Maybe if I was a liar, yeah, maybe it would. But... most of you know, I don't make up this shit. Hell, I don't have to! If I did, I'd make my life a lot more normal, less stressful, and I'd be wealthy with a lot of celebrities, and so on. My blog would be posted from my Jacuzzi, where I would be dropping names like Ben Affleck or Jenna Elfman.

people like you should die in a fucking fire. I fucking hate one-up liars. FUCK YOU AND FUCK OFF

Here's the last line of the short but sweet letter. People like me should die in a fire. His horror of my kind of people suggests that extreme extermination is the only valid solution. Hell, at least the Crunchland folks said I should "seek help," but this guy just wants it over. Black and white for him. Look at the "one up" liars comment. This strikes me that he considers my stories to be a blow to his ego in some way. He calms down after his all-caps rant, but after the "one up" statement, he returns to all caps. And then the letter abruptly ends with an almost humorously incongruous and cheerful ad for freemail.com.ru. Heh.

SCREW YOU, YOU HIPPIE!!!
--------------
Hallmark cards thanks for for choosing their product.
Would you like to know more?
http://www.hallmarkcardsgreetings.com

[Clarification: He did NOT post that last part, I threw that in for a cheap laugh] I am going to assume that this letter is written by someone who has some severe security issues. I break it down like this:

1. He sees something I post.
2. He finds what I post incredulous.
3. Somehow he interprets the post as an attack upon him. I am not sure if is #2 or #3 happens first.
4. This enrages him to the point he feels he needs to confront me. I do not know what result he expects from this action.
5. He lacks the bravery to confront me with a real e-mail address. I assume this means he feels threatened by my perceived retaliation in some way.

But in the end, what can I do? Being accused of a liar with no real proof or even examples doesn't help. And even if he did, and I said, "No, this is true, see... ask this person." They would accuse me of being that second person, photoshopping some photo proof, or covering up what I said with more lies. Someone this angry, and this scared isn't going to listen to reason.

Still, I have to admit, I feel a little crummy. It's not the first time I have been accused of this. I have weird friends, I am surrounded by strange situations, and I tend to analyze them and post them for group comments. I would imagine people outside my oddball social group would consider the stories a little incredulous. Also, I have read posts by others where I think, "They are so full of poop," but keep in mind I am not them, and maybe they tell their story a certain way for personal reasons. And unless it's tech support or the US Government, lies don't bother me the way they used to. I can sympathize with this guy because things I perceived to be lies used to piss me off. But I was so often wrong, and I have found that liars will stick to their lies, no matter how much proof I have otherwise, that lie-hunting was a pointless task that never satisfied me in any way. Most people will agree that all of us lie at some point or another; that was a harsh lesson I learned when I started in the tech industry, because for the first time, I had proof of lies in the forms of e-mails, system logs, and so on. I saw people sometimes lied at work to cover up for their own mistakes. I also found out some people lied for no immediately apparent reason, and this especially stunned me, but was quickly backed up by others who said, "Yeah, that's the human race for you." But still, I guess I am a little hurt because I post the truth as far as I know, and it's like when you bust your ass to do some really hard work, only to be told you didn't to the work right because you were just lazy instead of being told the wrong thing.

If this guy is reading this, let's start a dialogue. You're obvious hurt by something I posted, and I never meant for any story or comment I post about anything to be seen as a lie, and especially a lie to hurt you. If you're local, maybe we can meet in DC for a bite to eat or something. I'll bring some friends, and no worries, not to beat you up, but maybe for them to convince you my life really is this weird.

Unless you're Ted. You've already proven to be a coward, and have little value. Posted in: liar , lies , pathological liar , ted